Gold insight for PC Drafter

Doing a Mock draft is the perfect way to experiment and learn!

All across America, owners are congregating for draft day. And whether you are in Augusta, Georgia or Augusta, Maine, the refrain from most owners is the same – grab running backs early!

However, sometimes it’s good to take a different approach, and conversely it was time to design a draft plan that didn’t involve taking a running back in the first round. Or the second round…or the third…

With the onslaught of backfield committees, the running back position is deeper than it has been in quite some time. Oh sure, there are a few superstars like LaDanian Tomlinson out there, but many teams utilize more than one running back on a weekly basis. I opted for a strategy that would enable me to get two elite receivers and a top-notch QB right away and then see what I could get at RB.

Disclaimer: This team is not going to grade out as the best according to pcDrafter. But it’s a textbook example of trying a different approach on draft day. At the end of this article, you’ll see how to draft the #1 team in terms of total points and starting lineup points.

I was picking seventh in a 12-team draft using the serpentine method. The draft was 15 rounds and the maximum roster requirements are as follows – 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 1 K, and 2 DT. The starting lineup consists of 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DT, and one spot for a flex RB or WR.

NOTE: This league requires you start two QBs! That puts QBs at a premium.

ADP was used to determine the other team’s drafts.

Let’s take a look at my draft and then see what pcDrafter has to say: ----

Round 1 – Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis

I wouldn’t have taken a WR this early unless Manning was off the board. Fortunately, he was still available. In leagues that start 1-QB, no other QB justifies a first round pick in my estimation, and even if I had grabbed a running back in this spot someone else would have likely taken Manning in the first round as his ADP is 11. .

Round 2 – Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis

Other talented targets were out there, such as Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz’s ADP is 20 while Holt’s is 22. However, I gave Holt a slight edge. While I think Matt Leinart has great potential, Marc Bulger is more proven and has tunnel vision for Torry. Fitzgerald should lead Arizona in touchdown receptions, but Anquan Boldin will get his share of the yardage. Torry is clearly the top target in St. Louis on a great offense.

Round 3 – Javon Walker, WR, Denver

Walker’s ADP of 39 was lower than some other players who were still available, such as Anquan Boldin, Andre Johnson, and Marques Colston. But Boldin isn’t a great touchdown threat and Johnson’s supporting cast is shaky. Walker is a more proven commodity than Colston. He quickly established himself as the man in Denver last season and recovered nicely from a knee injury that ended his 2005 season. I really like Jay Cutler’s potential and Walker’s yardage totals should be good. Also, I think he’ll find the end zone enough to provide at least 10 Mile High Salutes.

Round 4 – Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants

Now that I have my starting WR positions settled, I can’t sleep much longer on running backs or else there won’t be anything left. Jacobs isn’t Tomlinson or Steven Jackson, but he’s a decent bet for 1,000 yards and at least 10 scores. And his ADP position is 43, so this is pretty much exactly in line.

Round 5 – Julius Jones, RB, Dallas

It’s the biggest mystery right now in Dallas. No, not Who Shot JR, but who will prosper more from the arrival of new Cowboys coach Wade Phillips – Julius Jones or Marion Barber? Barber went earlier in this draft, but Jones still looks to be the main yardage back. And he even got some red zone work against Denver last weekend. This was probably a little high for Jones, as his ADP is 71, but I couldn’t resist adding someone who should be featured prominently. He might not rack up a huge number of touchdowns, but he could get more this season than he did in 2006.

Round 6 – Phillip Rivers, QB, San Diego

With Manning, I know have the best quarterback in the business. I wanted a passer with upside to fill out my second starting slot, and Rivers fits the bill. I could have grabbed another stud quarterback early, but that would have left me too depleted at other positions. And I think Rivers will be a good starter this year. His ADP is 73, so this is a little early, but Phillip’s potential will pan out in the end.

Round 7 – Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay

Most seasons, there is always a rookie running back that shines. Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch are considered the cream of this year’s rookie crop, but Jackson has a great opportunity to carve out a niche with the Cheeseheads. Vernand Morency came into training camp as Green Bay’s starter, but Morency’s troubling injury tendency reared its ugly head again and now Jackson is in line to be the number one back for the Pack. His ADP is 85, so this is slightly high for him, but I think he’s a great gamble here and Jackson has a chance at surpassing Jones in my starting lineup or getting slotted in the flex position.

Round 8 – Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego

Jackson’s ADP of 91 puts him right in line for this pick. He’s considered a great sleeper with the potential to post good touchdown numbers and he forms a combination with Rivers. I can see him starting some games in the flex position

Round 9 – New England Defense

All of the news in New England is about Randy Moss and how he’s going to fit in, or when he might see the field. In the wake of that, the New England defense hasn’t captured a lot of headlines. But they have a lot to prove in the wake of their meltdown in the AFC title tilt, and the addition of Adalius Thomas means New England’s D should be back with a vengeance.

Round 10 – Dallas Clark, TE, Indianapolis

Clark doesn’t offer tremendous upside, but given that I have Manning, he’s a good weekly play as part of that combo. He’ll post some decent games and his ADP is 116, so this is about where he should go.

Round 11 – Chris Brown, RB, Tennessee

The name Chris Brown often makes fantasy owners cringe. He showed promise in 2004 but hasn’t done a darn thing since then. But, at this moment he is Tennessee’s starting running back. That may not last, but it’s pretty nice to be able to grab a starting running back at this late stage. If Brown somehow reverts back to his 2004 form, I’ve got a steal. His ADP of 165 means I took him a lot earlier than most would, but it was all about securing another starter.

Round 12 – Joe Horn, WR, Atlanta

I’m not exactly proud to say I drafted an Atlanta receiver. I’d rather shell out 500 bucks to watch a street fight between the lead singer of Air Supply and Barry Manilow than draft Joey Harrington for one of my fantasy teams. But new Atlanta leader Bobby Petrino likes to throw the football; and Harrington can look adequate for a few games here and there. Unlike stiffs like Michael Jenkins and Roddy White, Horn actually has a track record of success. He’ll only start once in awhile for me, and hopefully I’ll get lucky that Horn will make a nice contribution. His ADP actually says he should have been drafted earlier.

Round 13 – Nate Kaeding, K, San Diegor

Nate is a safe bet to be one of the better kickers.

Round 14 – Chris Baker, TE, New York Jets

He’s not exactly Chris Baker the Touchdown Maker, but he should be a passable reserve. His ADP of 165 puts him in this range.

Round 15 – New Orleans

The Saints won’t see much playing time, but they at least have the potential to post some numbers with some off-season acquisitions and two good pass rushing ends in Will Smith and Charles Grant.

QB-WR-WR Analysis

pcDrafter gave my squad 2,099 total points. This placed it seventh. The top ADP team had 2,250. It also gave me 1,645 starter points, which placed my team at eighth overall in that category. There’s no doubt that I would have scored higher had I targeted running backs earlier.

If you look at my squad, I have the best quarterback overall and two of the best receivers. And between Jacobs, Jones, and Brandon Jackson, I could be okay at running back. I have a solid kicker and defense and players like Rivers and Clark will contribute.

The bottom line is this – if you target QBs and WRs early, you can still get some decent prospects at running backs. However, nobody wants to see his or her team grade out in the bottom tier.

BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD…

Taking Team 7 to the Top

To improve on the 7th place score of 2,099 total points, pcDrafter was used in a new mock draft.

The new mock draft used the identical league setup explained above.

Only now, its pcDrafter’s GOLD algorithm in slot #7 going against 11 ADP teams.

pcDrafter rips thru the mock draft. A minute later, the results are in.

The GOLD team is #1 in terms of starting lineup points (1771) and #1 for total team points (2349). Not bad!

Picking from the #7 spot is never easy, however pcDrafter focused on landing RBs and QBs early. Recall in this league, you must start two QBs.

While the WRs are not terrific, you only need to start two. With the four drafted, you can certainly get by.

Below is the winning team.

pcDrafter with the GOLD Algorithm - Team 7
#1 in Starting Lineup Points
#1 in Total Team Roster Points



Pos   Player Name                   Team    Bye    Points    
=========================================
D     Jets, New-York               NYJ     10     117       
D     Colts, Indianapolis           IND     6      111       
K     Vinatieri, Adam               IND     6      133       
QB    Romo, Tony                   DAL     8      251       
QB    Kitna, Jon                     DET     6      235       
RB    Maroney, Laurence          NE      10     239       
RB    Brown, Ronnie                 MIA     9      224       
RB    Jacobs, Brandon              NYG     9      202       
RB    Green, Ahman                 HOU     10     190       
TE    Miller, Heath                     PIT     6      90        
TE    Campbell, Dan                  DET     6      49        
WR    Galloway, Joey                TB      10     142       
WR    Berrian, Bernard               CHI     9      138       
WR    Hackett, D.j.                   SEA     8      126       
WR    Kennison, Eddie                KC      8      102       
=========================================
Total Player Points: 2349         
 See our other Gold insight articles:
 The Difference Factor - Picking players based on what they bring to the whole team.
Gold Details - the factors we consider and a brief explanation of each.
Gold Method  - take a look at the pseudo-code for what goes into each Gold calculation.
Other articles- including several analyses of pcDrafter in the hands of experts.