pcDrafter Gold – the way to win your draft!

High Level Outline:

  1. Capture Inputs (scoring rules, league parameters)
  2. Calculate Static Benchmark Values
  3. Calculate Dynamic Factors
  4. Apply formula and rank draft pick recommendations

The pcDrafter Gold algorithm herein will rank the Best Available Players for the team about to make a draft pick.

pcDrafter Gold allows you to accurately compare the value of all players regardless of what position they play.

The key is calculating how much more valuable a player is at his position than his peers at that same position. Then, comparing all players across positions to see who has the most value, given the current state of the draft.

The more a player outscores his position’s benchmark, the more valuable he becomes. To make all this happen…

A) projected stats are needed for each player.


B) league rules and requirements must also be entered into the system.


C) With A and B in place, each player’s projected fantasy points can be computed.


D) Static benchmark values for each position are computed.

Players are evaluated using the following formula:

(Player Projected Fantasy Points – Static Bench Mark) x
(Player Projected Fantasy Points – Dynamic Bench Mark) x
(Current Team’s Need) x
(League Need) x
(League Bias) x
(League Max)

1. Static Benchmark

Before the draft the system computes a Static BenchMark for each position.
The Static BenchMark is the baseline each available player at that position will be compared against during the draft. Available players at each position will either be better or worse (more projected fantasy points or less) than their Static BenchMark.

The following reference table provides the Position Multiplier to be used in the Static BenchMark calculation. It is based on years of ADP data, historical norms and tons of sensitivy analysis.

Static BenchMark: Position Multipliers
Position Position Multiplier
QB 1.30
RB 1.50
WR 1.30
TE 0.80
K 0.08
DEF 0.33
All others (if any) 0.08

We establish the Static BenchMark by position as follows:

(# Teams) X (# Starters at that position) X (Position Multiplier)

EXAMPLE:

Say the league starts 2 RBs and has 10 teams…

10 X 2 X 1.5 = 30

So, before the draft starts, we would take the projected Fantasy points for the 30th best RB (lets say that was 520 points).

Then, the Static BenchMark for the RB would equal 520 points.

2. Dynamic Benchmark

A player’s value is also a function of how that player compares to the best players currently available at his position. So, as players are drafted, the remaining players can become more or less valuable depending on who’s selected during the draft. pcDrafter Gold will easily be able to reflect this by leveraging the following:

# Teams x # Starters at that position

Example:

If a league has 11 teams and each must start a QB…
11 x 1  =  11

So, each available QB’s projected fantasy points should be compared to the average of the 11 best remaining QBs projected fantasy points.

3. Team Need Factor

As the draft progresses, each team will have varying needs to fill by position, depending upon what that team has already drafted at that position.

If a league starts three wide receivers and the team about to pick has already drafted five wide receivers, then that team does not have a pressing need for a WR.

To determine a team’s need for a given position GOLD uses the following table:

Team Need Lookup Table
Team has Drafted Starts 0 Starts 1 Starts 2 Starts 3 Starts 4 Starts 5+
0 0 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20
1 0 0.80 1.0 1.05 1.1 1.15
2 0 0.50 0.85 1.0 1.05 1.1
3 0 0.20 0.70 0.90 1.0 1.05
4 0 0.15 0.50 0.80 0.90 1.0
5 0 0.10 0.20 0.50 0.80 0.85
6+ 0 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.55

Example: if a team has two RBs and the league starts two, then that team’s need factor for another RB is 0.85. Here, the team’s RB need factor is below 1.0 because the team already has satisfied its starting RB requirement.

4. League Wide Need Factor

As a draft progresses the league as a whole will have more or less need for players at various positions. If the league has a pressing need for a given position, then players available at that position become more valuable.

pcDrafter Gold will easily be able to reflect this by leveraging the following table:
  % of Starters Already Drafted
POS 0 to 30 31 to 50 51 to 70 71 to 90 91 to 120 121 to 160 161+
QB 1.15 1 .9 .6 .4 .3 .2
RB 1.3 1.1 .92 .7 .5 .3 .2
WR 1.1 .9 .8 .6 .4 .3 .2
TE 1 .8 .6 .4 .3 .1 .06
K .6 .5 .4 .2 .1 .1 .06
DEF 1 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 .2
All Others .6 .5 .3 .2 .1 .07 .06

Example: if the league has 12 teams and each team is required to start two RBs then if the league has already drafted 11 RBs we get…

11/(12x2) = 46%

So, from the table above, League-Wide Need for RB = 1.1

In this example, the factor is over 1.0 reflecting the league (as a whole) is still going to be “on the prowl” for RBs.

5. League Bias Factor

Some leagues have a bias about drafting certain positions. Some leagues overvalue QBs for example. Others tend to avoid drafting QBs. Veteran managers may know this and will want to take advantage of it.
 
pcDrafter Gold will easily allows you to reflect this by making your understanding of the league known in a table before the draft.  During the draft, pcDrafter will utilize your inputs.

6. League Maximum Factor


To ensure pcDrafter Gold does not suggest players for a team after that team has reached its maximum allowed, Gold employs a 0/1 for each position…

IF    # players at POS (i)   LESS THAN      POS(i) MAX
THEN 1.0
ELSE 0

SUMMARY

In a faction of a second, and for each player drafted, GOLD ranks players before each team makes its draft pick using the following formula:

GOLD =
(Player Projected Fantasy Points – Static BenchMark) x
(Player Projected Fantasy Points – Dynamic BenchMark) x
(Current Team’s Need) x
(League Need) x
(League Bias) x
(League Max) 

The higher the player’s GOLD score, the more valuable the player is to the team currently drafting.

See our other Gold insight articles:

The Difference Factor - Picking players based on what they bring to the whole team.

Gold Details - the factors we consider and a brief explanation of each.

Other articles- including several analyses of pcDrafter in the hands of experts.



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Note: all forecast data updates after June 1, 2009 will be for subscribers only